War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the polls under a new law which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to boycott the polls.

The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will compete only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a military representative told a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "the path to democracy".