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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the award. However, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the greatest shock.

But the latest competition is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and recent underperformers improving in unison. Under an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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