Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
