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Beijing has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones near remote Japanese territory as Beijing escalates strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An attack or invasion by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.